Irvine Real Estate Link, CA – Is real estate market picking up?

by Robert Mack on August 21, 2008

in Irvine Real Estate

After about three years of market slump, it seems only logical that Irvine property prices should rise.

Ever since early 2006 up to present time (August 2008) the property prices have dropped just a little over 20%. A live example is the house that my parents purchased in the Northpark Square, Irvine, in July of 2006 for $740,000, now assessed at $590,000 (hundreds of thousands are in the same boat). Of course it shouldn’t make a whole lot of difference to them because they don’t intend to sell. We are at a point where prices tend to level off; at least they don’t seem to be dropping at an uncommon rate. Some buyers seem to realize this and are moving in for the kill while there is still time. I believe there is still time, at least through December of 2008, perhaps into 2009. But I wouldn’t hold my breath. However, in Orange County the sales seem to have picked up ever so slightly in the past month or so. Irvine foreclosed properties seemed to have contributed somewhat markedly. This is good news, but can it be an indication that the market is picking up? It could, but then again it may not be true statewide. But one thing is for certain the number of buyers have increased in OC.

I direct the reader to the Orange County Register, dated August 18 2008, carrying an article regarding market pickup. While I may have my skepticism about the article, however some readers might be interested to see as to what the Register had to say. You draw your own conclusions.

Conflicting reports are all over the www. Unless one is broadminded and is willing to see and accept the true nature of the current housing market, one can easily fool oneself in the wrong direction. There are lots of readers who read and believe passively and pass along their thoughts to the rest of the world in a willy-nilly fashion of comments. Nobody can precisely predict the future of any market, that’s why we have statistics and probabilities based on history and trends. Of course, history can’t tell us a lot because we are (and have been) in a rather unusual market slump. The only thing that is left for us, as a tool to forecast, is the not-so-past trends. And these not-so-past trends have shown us a slowdown in dropping property values and in some cases, even an increase in buyers. Please note: I did not say increase in property values. That will come later when too many buyers begin their jolly stampede.

Here are some comments that I’ve encountered on the Net:

“… and the market gets better after November election.”
“The market will pick up when the Demos come to power.”
“… It normally takes a five-year cycles… so we predict the situation will begin picking up around late 2010…”

While any one of these statements may hold some water, I’d consider myself frightfully naiive in trusting them outright.
We are not yet out of this grand market mire, and that faint light at the end of the tunnel is still weak and tends to go off more often that not.

Views, comments, responses and constructive criticisms are welcome.

Make it a great day.

The Mack Team
Robert & Tania Mack

Century21 Professionals

Irvine, Orange County, California.

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